Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 91429.902121 96433.385448 101435.312861 106807.496926 112410.620528 118078.835331 124242.864987
2025-11-23 82879.561605 90487.654848 98304.331709 106925.316706 116156.221744 125733.308987 136410.254959
2025-11-30 77801.014821 87267.418548 97202.338020 108385.392958 120601.470307 133519.316702 148190.402868
2025-12-07 73619.503153 84472.238972 96066.490613 109340.170649 124080.564755 139911.956652 158164.473247
2025-12-14 69592.479865 81476.544758 94373.854040 109360.488630 126243.650622 144622.253620 166087.678145
2025-12-21 66337.966816 79091.099810 93128.697420 109658.472799 128518.883225 149295.455388 173839.121517
2025-12-28 64297.986420 77922.529973 93110.627035 111208.192766 132092.061679 155340.210382 183079.108921
2026-01-04 62259.631172 76619.837508 92819.195376 112335.877808 135094.484636 160675.989659 191480.236888
2026-01-11 60194.901233 75169.135354 92252.492475 113049.722868 137541.506359 165321.614113 199060.573115
2026-01-18 58033.279654 73497.798577 91332.591746 113262.174082 139330.859836 169154.813442 205670.032055
2026-01-25 56096.378791 72006.998302 90546.535139 113559.255819 141158.964564 172990.849844 212261.024853
2026-02-01 54193.151339 70476.777629 89641.096104 113646.860698 142683.147365 176431.570297 218367.668137
2026-02-08 52980.506174 69760.531203 89697.035766 114886.089134 145598.572426 181555.171557 226538.141453
2026-02-15 51200.330559 68277.959057 88765.090583 114877.395704 146974.736721 184828.784808 232508.567470
2026-02-22 50299.259775 67855.408042 89102.100632 116397.637186 150195.317132 190317.540441 241162.763888
2026-03-01 49208.265215 67148.134914 89048.410701 117403.936270 152766.945995 195018.627268 248881.757293
2026-03-08 47712.591833 65872.070514 88237.056481 117424.248414 154089.400000 198182.065707 254729.018924
2026-03-15 46437.150406 64836.135931 87689.120188 117739.860000 155751.913599 201747.367163 261069.949901
2026-03-22 45835.896329 64651.727071 88202.328262 119382.382820 159068.805552 207356.512781 269951.830741
2026-03-29 45069.584435 64221.925391 88377.943985 120577.474866 161815.105016 212265.617315 277992.679996
2026-04-05 44151.189452 63560.062723 88228.106045 121333.929860 163993.503358 216468.172814 285172.222256
2026-04-12 43049.694095 62620.055700 87687.026392 121559.053042 165476.328209 219793.399889 291263.436294
2026-04-19 42035.557468 61767.462470 87233.291685 121873.847885 167057.337437 223235.928997 297510.181244